Stiers, D. & Dassonneville, R. (forthcoming). Do Volatile Voters Vote Less Correctly? An Analysis of Correct Voting among Vote (Intention) Switchers in U.S. Presidential Election Campaigns. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, in press.
The literature on electoral volatility and the literature on electoral campaigns hold contradictory views on voters switching vote (intention) during the campaign. In this note, we shed new light on this contradiction, making two contributions. First, we investigate the extent to which stable and volatile voters choose the correct party. Second, we distinguish levels of correct voting and the impact of the act of switching on the correctness of the vote. Our analyses of vote-switching in American elections show that, while volatile voters are less likely to vote correctly, they are more likely to switch from an incorrect to the correct party than vice versa. Furthermore, we show that following the campaign more closely makes voters more likely to switch vote (intention) towards the correct party
Electoral volatility, vote (intention) switching, correct voting, American National Election Studies, electoral campaigns.
This content has been updated on 3 October 2018 at 11 h 18 min.