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2019 Canadian Federal Election – Forecasts for the Incumbent Party

THE CANADA ELECTION NOWCASTER  ———————————————————————————- FINAL FORECAST FOR: OCTOBER 2019 (41.23%) ———————————————————————————– Post-election update: The 2019 election has proven to be quite harsh for the model, producing its second highest error (around eight percentage points) over the 1953-2019 period. Although I will look more deeply into this in the coming weeks, the SNC-Lavalin scandal and […] Read more

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New publication: Polarized partisanship, over-stability and partisan bias in Turkey

A new paper by Semih Çakır is now available online in Turkish Studies. In this article, the author investigates the role of partisanship in Turkey during the 2011 and 2015 general elections. The paper is available here. Abstract: A vast literature demonstrates that partisanship has a stabilizing impact on politics, as it limits electoral volatility. Recent […] Read more

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Tuesday Seminar – 15 October, 2019

Upcoming Talk Tuesday October 15, 2019: Philippe Mongrain (Université de Montréal), Richard Nadeau (Université de Montréal), and Bruno Jérôme (Université Paris II Panthéon-Assas). “Playing the synthesizer with Canadian data: Adding polls to a structural forecasting model“. Pavillon Lionel-Groulx, Université de Montréal, C-4145, 12h-13h. Abstract: Election forecasting has become a fixture of election campaigns in a […] Read more

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Tuesday Seminar – October 1, 2019

Tuesday October 1, 2019: Peter Loewen (University of Toronto). “Intrinsic Motivations to Represent Marginalized Groups in a Democracy: Evidence from an unelected legislature”. Pavillon Lionel-Groulx, Université de Montréal, C-4145, 12h-13h. Title: Intrinsic Motivations to Represent Marginalized Groups in a Democracy: Evidence from an Unelected Legislature Abstract: Do legislators from marginalized groups have intrinsic motivations to represent ‘their’ […] Read more

Activities News

Tuesday Seminar – September 24, 2019

Upcoming Talk Tuesday September 24, 2019: Ruth Dassonneville (Université de Montréal), Stephen Quinlan (CSES, GESIS) and Ian McAllister (Australian National University). “‘That Bloody Woman’ Syndrome? The Popularity of Female Party Leaders Worldwide.” Pavillon Lionel-Groulx, Université de Montréal, Room C-4145, 12h-13h. Read more

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2019 C-Dem Module Competition

In July 2019, Philippe Mongrain won the firt edition of the Canadian Election Study Module Competition (PhD stream) organized by the Consortium on Electoral Democracy (C-Dem) for his proposal entitled “Contact Networks and Citizen Forecasting.” The module proposed by Mongrain will contribute to analyze the relationship between voters’ foretelling abilities and the characteristics of their […] Read more